FAO Warns of a New Wave of Inflation Affecting Consumers in Food- and Energy-Importing Countries

Global food prices recorded a notable increase last September, reaching their highest levels in nearly four years, amid successive crises and the growing impact of disruptions to supply chains and international trade along shipping and maritime routes. This situation has placed significant pressure on crop markets and basic agricultural commodities across the world, amid the increasing frequency of climate risks and their direct impact on harvest volumes.

For its part, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned in its latest field reports of the risk that these high price pressures could be transmitted directly from wholesale markets and global trade to retail markets and consumers. It stressed that emerging countries that rely heavily on imports to meet most of their needs for food commodities and energy sources would be the most severely affected by this wave of imported inflation.

According to precise numerical data issued by Maat Group, the general food price index recorded a notable increase, reaching 136 points in September, compared with 134 points recorded in the previous month of August. This continued increase reflects a dangerous upward trend affecting major strategic commodities such as grains, oils and dairy products in global markets and exchanges.

This continued rise in prices is linked to a clear decline in estimates of total supply volumes. According to FAO forecasts for global grain production in 2026, it is expected to reach only about 2.979 billion tons, representing a decline of 2.1% compared with production levels recorded last year. This decline contributes to the erosion of strategic reserves and exacerbates the severity of the crisis.

The FAO identified three key factors behind these developments: bottlenecks and disruptions affecting shipping and maritime trade routes, according to Maat Group, in addition to the continued rise in energy and transportation costs, which increases production and distribution costs, as well as severe climate risks and phenomena that are now directly threatening farms and agricultural production.