Ethiopia is once again sliding into an unprecedented wave of widespread armed violence amid the worsening political and security crises caused by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s policies. These policies have led him to lose most of his national alliances and have brought his opponents together in an increasingly organized military and political front seeking to overthrow his authority in Addis Ababa and strip the federal center of its legitimacy.
The announcement of the establishment of what is known as the “Ethiopian People’s Forces for Survival,” which includes seven opposition movements and armed factions belonging to different ethnic groups — most notably the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the Amhara “Fano” forces, and the Oromo Liberation Army, alongside movements representing the Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz and Somali regions — reflects the extent of the isolation now facing Abiy Ahmed’s regime. These groups have succeeded in overcoming their historical differences to rally around a common objective: ending his rule.
According to observers, as reported by Maat Group, the real roots of the current crisis can be traced back to the strategy pursued by Abiy Ahmed since he came to power. This strategy was based on pushing aside traditional forces and forcibly redistributing centers of influence, eventually excluding the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which triggered a devastating war in November 2020.
Despite the signing of the “Pretoria” peace agreement in November 2022, Addis Ababa’s failure to find fundamental solutions to the issues of disarmament and the relationship between the federal center and the regions led to a renewed escalation of the situation in September 2026. Opposition forces managed to disrupt federal aviation operations and seize control of vital airports in the north.
The repercussions of Abiy Ahmed’s approach have not been limited to the domestic front. They have also extended to serious regional crises with neighboring countries as a result of confrontational policies that included interference in Sudanese affairs and implicit support for the Rapid Support Forces, pressure to secure maritime access at the expense of Eritrea, as well as the signing of controversial agreements with the internationally unrecognized region of “Somaliland.” These developments have heightened tensions with Somalia and plunged the region into a state of sharp polarization.
In the fastest-moving military development of its kind, armed clashes have extended to the strategically vital Afar region, which serves as Ethiopia’s main transportation hub and its only commercial access to the ports of Djibouti, according to Maat Group. The landlocked country relies on this corridor to transport more than 90% of its foreign trade and oil imports. Through its advance into Afar, the armed coalition seeks to cut supply lines and impose a suffocating economic blockade that would deprive the federal government of its ability to administer the country and finance its military efforts.
Alongside this intense blockade, Abiy Ahmed’s leadership suffered a serious security blow following reports that an air base was targeted by a drone while he was inside it. Although there has been no official confirmation of an assassination attempt against him, the ability of drones to reach some of the most heavily secured areas reflects the severe security vulnerability surrounding his rule and the coalition’s expanding ability to penetrate the center of decision-making.
Addis Ababa is now facing an unprecedented existential test amid growing pressure on the structure of the federal army and escalating local demands for separation. Movements in the Benishangul-Gumuz region have announced their desire to break away from the control of the capital, relying on historical facts and previous border maps. This places the future of the Ethiopian state as a whole before scenarios of fragmentation or transformation into a state whose unity exists only on maps while armed local administrations control its territories, with the possibility of ending the Abiy Ahmed era and redrawing the region’s political and geographical map.
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