Saudi Diplomatic Moves to Contain Escalation and Shield the Gulf from a New Military Confrontation

On November 3, the Saudi Cabinet reaffirmed the continuation of diplomatic efforts to preserve security and stability, in coordination with the countries concerned with the mediation process between the United States and Iran.

At the same time, Riyadh stressed its commitment to protecting “national sovereignty, maritime security and global energy supplies,” making clear the government’s determination to safeguard the security of citizens and residents. The Kingdom also intends to maintain oil supplies to prevent international crises from worsening and avoid a widespread economic recession that could affect global trade for years to come.

This political position coincided with the visit of Saudi National Security Adviser Musaed Al-Aiban to the Chinese capital, Beijing, carrying a message from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Chinese President Xi Jinping. It also came amid a series of contacts conducted by Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman with his counterparts in several countries, including US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

These sustained diplomatic initiatives demonstrate that Saudi policy is addressing the current crisis in the Arabian Gulf through several complementary channels, bringing together diplomacy, defense coordination, the protection of economic interests and a clear determination to spare the region another war that would drain its resources and expose regional security to serious risks.

Riyadh understands that ending the confrontation between the United States and Iran will not be an easy task, particularly given the presence of a third party that considers war necessary and believes there is a favorable opportunity to overthrow the Iranian regime: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is urging US President Donald Trump to resume military strikes.

Addressing the possibility of renewed war and the threats arising from such a development has required action on several fronts. This has been clearly reflected in the visit by a delegation from the “Mecca Alliance” to the Iranian capital, Tehran, last October, as well as the activities of the “Quadrilateral Group” in supporting Qatari mediation.

Returning to Musaed Al-Aiban’s visit to China, observers will recognize that it carries political and security significance extending beyond bilateral relations between Riyadh and Beijing. China is, in particular, the guarantor of the “Beijing Agreement” between Saudi Arabia and Iran, signed in March 2023 by Al-Aiban on behalf of Riyadh and the late Ali Shamkhani on behalf of Tehran.

Beijing also welcomed Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, who discussed energy issues, the security of maritime corridors and the restoration of normal, unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Muscat and Beijing also reaffirmed their support for resolving the regional crisis through dialogue.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also met in Beijing on November 2 with Ali Bagheri Kani, Deputy Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. During the meeting, Beijing reaffirmed its “readiness to continue working with all parties to establish peace.” This reflects extensive diplomatic activity that places China at the heart of broader regional de-escalation efforts.

China holds significant economic influence in Iran, while its interests are closely tied to the stability of the Arabian Gulf and the continued flow of energy supplies. This is particularly important given its multibillion-dollar trade partnerships with Saudi Arabia. Such leverage could enable Beijing to encourage Tehran to make serious commitments that would support Qatari-Pakistani mediation and make Iran’s position more flexible and pragmatic.

Nevertheless, one important factor should not be overlooked: Beijing has its own strategic calculations, which make it keen to preserve Iran’s security and oppose US military pressure against the country. This approach is closely linked to the broader rivalry between Beijing and Washington and the strategic balance between the two powers.

Saudi coordination with China expands the channels of influence over Iran and encourages Tehran to demonstrate greater political flexibility and respond positively to Qatari mediation. This is precisely what Riyadh seeks to achieve, enabling mediators to convey proposals or present a realistic Iranian offer that US President Donald Trump could accept.

Accordingly, any settlement requires two interconnected tracks to proceed simultaneously. The first involves reaching an understanding between Washington and Tehran on Iran’s nuclear program, economic sanctions, frozen assets, the naval blockade and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The second track concerns regional arrangements between Iran and its neighbors, addressing unrestricted freedom of maritime navigation, respect for the national sovereignty of states, an end to armed attacks and the cessation of support for subversive cells and militias.

Although advancing these two tracks requires a gradual approach, time, solid understandings and the rebuilding of trust that is currently lacking, progress on one track could precede the other, provided that coordination between them is maintained. This would prevent a setback in a specific security issue from becoming a reason to derail the entire settlement process.